One thing that might complicate the outcome of the dead pool is the possibility that many will die. Of the
26 listed below, we should see at least 10 and as many as 20 of them physically
dead (with perhaps their souls saved in the soul stone). The higher the
mortality rate, the more ties you'll have in your own pool. Also remember that
the soul stone has the ability to bring souls back to life, so anyone who dies
in the first film can be resurrected in the second film. You are not making
your picks based on who might die permanent deaths in the MCU. Some may just
die temporarily due to the power of the gauntlet.
It's also worth pointing out that there was some trailer footage used in the analysis below, but I have stopped watching the newest trailers and promo clips because they are releasing too much information. Whether or not you include an entry fee to the dead pool is entirely up to your group. Rotten Tomatoes did a list revealing odds for all the characters dying, which I did not think was all that accurate. Still, it's there if you want to use that as a draft tool.
It's also worth pointing out that there was some trailer footage used in the analysis below, but I have stopped watching the newest trailers and promo clips because they are releasing too much information. Whether or not you include an entry fee to the dead pool is entirely up to your group. Rotten Tomatoes did a list revealing odds for all the characters dying, which I did not think was all that accurate. Still, it's there if you want to use that as a draft tool.
High Risk:
* Vision -
He's alive because the mind stone is welded to his head. We know it will be
removed from his head at some point, but we don't know if he'll still be alive
when it's gone. Very good chance that Vision is sucked into the soul stone, or
that upon removal of the mind stone, his body is rendered useless, but his
consciousness survives in the mind stone.
* The Collector -
Just having a stone puts him at high risk. We're not entirely sure yet how
Thanos's encounter with him will go when he collects the reality stone, but
there's a good chance he's going to perish.
* Heimdall -
If he's got the soul stone, he'll be in Thanos path. The fact that we don't see
Heimdall in any of the trailer footage does indicate an increased probability
that he dies when Thanos acquires the soul stone. Or, he's going to get sucked
into the soul stone, which has the ability to store souls inside. This may be
how Heimdall saves all the Asgardians from death when they meet Thanos, inside
the soul stone.
* Loki - He
has the space gem. He'll give it up easily, but he's still at high risk of
harm. Thanos can't be happy about what happened in New York and the fact that
he didn't get the mind gem back. Rotten Tomatoes did a "Hero Death
Odds" piece that noted we don't see Loki in any other trailer footage
other than giving the stone to Thanos.
* Nebula - She is consumed by hatred of Thanos and this could get her killed. There is no doubt she is going to play an important role to the plot and may even be the one to rip the gauntlet from Thanos fist (as she does in the comics).
* Captain America -
The only reason that Captain America is in the high risk is because of Chris
Evans contract status. He won't be one of the ones to die a temporary death,
but may be the best candidate to die a permanent death at the end of the 2nd
movie.
* Hawkeye - If
you haven't already noticed, Hawkeye is conspicuously absent from much of the
promo art and trailer footage thus far. This cast is very large and with
several mouths to feed, but we're seeing far more from lesser characters who
are not core Avengers.
* War Machine -
He will probably fly valiantly into battle despite not being fully recovered
from injury and die a noble death. We know from the trailers that he'll be
present at the battle of Wakanda, a battle which will likely have a high
mortality rate for the good guys.
Medium
Risk:
* Thor -We do
see Thanos attempting to crush Thor's skull in a trailer, which does put him at
some risk at harm. I'd be shocked though if they killed Thor at the start of
the first movie. Chris Hemsworth may currently be sitting without a contract
for more movies in the future, but Thor Ragnarok did well and Hemsworth has
expressed a desire to return in the role.
* Drax - They
will need this character again in the future, but he may be a likely candidate
to die on a temporary basis, just by virtue of his desire for revenge against
Thanos. He might get himself killed in the process. Those who are most eager to
attack Thanos are in grave danger.
* Black Widow -
I'm not sure how much longer Scarlet Johansson wants to play this character.
The job is probably hers as long as she wants it. There has been talk of her
getting her own stand-alone movie, which might save her character's life.
* Scarlet Witch -
We know that her and Vision are a thing now. Guess who is #1 on the death risk
list? Even just her proximity to this high value target put her at greater risk
of harm. She possesses powers similar to the reality stone and has a history
with the mind stone since that what her powers came from. She might have some neat tricks up her sleeve.
* Bucky - We
know that Thanos will have a scene where he engages Captain America in hand to
hand combat, as it's been in almost every trailer. Bucky will undoubtedly be
close to Cap throughout the battle, so we know that he will enter Thanos's path.
* Iron Man -
The Rotten Tomatoes list had Ironman at even odds, which I very much disagreed
with. Robert Downey Jr might not have a new contract, but it would be shocking
to see Marvel kill off it's cash cow. We do see him engage Thanos in hand to
hand combat in trailer footage, and it doesn't go well for Tony. He's in
danger.
* Gamora - We
do see a flashback in trailer footage of Thanos conquering a planet with a
toddler sized Gamora. There will be some backstory between these two
characters, as her betraying him in Guardians of the Galaxy would have hurt him
deeply.
* Falcon -
He'll be close to the Captain, which will put him in harm's way, just like
Bucky. It's also not impossible that Anthony Mackie will be named the next
Captain America if Chris Evans is done, so there's that.
* Dr Strange - He's got one of the gems and we do
see him being tortured in a trailer. He's going to be harm's way. The likeliest
outcome is that Dr Strange hides the time stone and doesn't have it on him when
he's captured. If he did, they would just kill him instead of going to the
trouble of torture and interrogation.
Low Risk:
* Ant-man - Probably the safest bet to live
considering there is a new Antman movie coming out soon. That fact alone kinda
makes him untouchable. He has been absent from much of the Infinity War promo
art and trailer footage even though he is a confirmed cast member. He hasn't
been officially named to the MCU version of the Avengers team, but he's an
important one in the comics.
* Spiderman - They will get Tom Holland as much
screen time as possible, and the deal with Sony may indirectly guarantee Peter
lives. He is also a contender to steal the gauntlet from Thanos, though he may
have some issues at the battle of Wakanda with a lack of trees in the open
field. He won't be putting on an aerial show.
* Black Panther - He's the new golden boy of the
MCU. He'll be back. They are putting him into as much promo art, trailer
footage, and merchandise as they possibly can. He'll be on screen as much as
anybody and alive from start to finish.
* Captain Marvel - We can expect a cameo at some
point, and as a new addition to the MCU, they'll want to grow the character for
her upcoming stand-alone films. For a character who has been confirmed in the
cast, they’re mostly leaving her out of the trailers and promotion.
* Groot - It's unlikely that Marvel wants to
kill off this character, but maybe he's a likely target for a short-term death
because you can just grow a new Groot by planting one of his twigs in the
ground.
* Star Lord -
There has to be close to a 0% chance that Chris Pratt is dying in this movie.
At least now we know that he's a God (or the son of a God), so he's probably
not 100% mortal. He should be able to sustain some serious damage while staying
alive.
* Rocket -
Animal rights activists would be angered if Rocket died. Even though he's a CGI
Character. Don't expect Rocket to end up in the trash. I'm really not expecting
any of the Guardians to die, but Drax might get himself killed.
* Hulk - We
didn't even know if Hulk can be killed. He will probably get a beaten up badly
at some point by the power gem, but I don't think he can die.
* Shuri -
She's also a very popular new character who will be playing a substantial
supporting role in more future films. She may even be the most unkillable
character in Infinity War.
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